Toward a National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System for Operational Intra-Seasonal to Interannual (ISI) Climate Forecasts

This white paper summarizes the background, the need, and proposed implementation strategy for a national multi-model ensemble (NMME) system for operational intra-seasonal to interannual (ISI) climate prediction. The proposed strategy includes implementation of an experimental NMME protocol and designing and testing a future protocol for operational NMME prediction system. The protocols will leverage existing activities and resources to achieve an NMME capability quickly, and it will be sufficiently flexible to evolve as it guides research, development, transition to operations, and evaluation. By building a network of communications and collaborations among NMME partners and stakeholders, and by identifying and applying best practices, the protocols will also seek to optimize the utility and value of ISI climate forecast products.